MICHAŁ ASMAN - Twój Osobisty Doradca Finansowy
Poniższa wypowiedź Prezesa Thomasa Jordana Szwajcarskiego Banku Centralnego z dnia 18-06-2015 r. mijają się z prawdą, gdyż w dniu 15-01-2015 r. SCB uwolnił kurs franka szwajcarskiego w stosunku do Euro tylko na parę sekund, by jeszcze szybciej do niego powrócić. Gdyby faktycznie uwolnili kurs to kurs franka jeszcze tego samego dnia byłby on na poziomie 0, 25 CHF za jedno Euro lub jeszcze nawet niżej, a to by oznaczało BANKRUCTWO SZWAJCARSKIEJ GOSPODARKI.
Zysków nie widzę, tylko same straty, gdyż tym uwolnieniem mieli zamiar osłabić kurs franka do euro, a wyszło im na odwrót same straty. Obrona kursu tylko 15 stycznia w granicach 1:1 kosztowała ich trzydziestokrotnie więcej dziennie od tego, co wydawali dziennie w obronie kursu 1, 2 za Euro.
This measure is designed to deter investors who view the franc as a safe haven. SNB chairman Thomas Jordan said that the franc has appreciated by 12% in trade-weighted terms since the central bank ditched its euro peg policy on January 15. źródło swissinfo
Gdyby rzeczywiście kurs franka był uwolniony to nie utrzymywałby się w tak niskim paśmie wahań w stosunku do EURO. Proszę zwrócić uwagę z tego dnia na wykres na którym jednak widać interwencję jak podnoszą poprzeczkę kursu z 0,8262 w okolice 1: 1 za Euro, co potwierdza że piszę prawdę.
Federacja Związków Zawodowych w Szwajcarii też krytykuje Bank Centralny i wzywa SNB do podniesienia minimalnego kursu wymiany franka do Euro:
The over-valued franc( źródło swissinfo 18-06-2015 )
On Tuesday the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) lowered its gross domestic product growth forecast for this year to 0.8%, down from its previous 0.9% prediction.
Swissmem, the umbrella body for the mechanical and electrical engineering sectors, last month warned that nearly a third of its member companies expected to make a loss this year as a result of the strong franc.
It called on the SNB to do “everything in its power” to bring down the “massively over-valued franc”.
Rudolf Minsch, chief economist of the Swiss Business Federation (economiesuisse), said that although the current SNB policy was hurting exporters, it is a “pragmatic step”.
“It is clear that the SNB cannot keep changing its policy every month,” Minsch told swissinfo.ch. “It is a good thing that the SNB is independent. I doubt that it is helpful when every interested party tries to formulate its own monetary policy.”
The SNB’s decision to leave interest rates as they are in Switzerland did not surprise economists who overwhelmingly feel that the central bank needs to keep some of its powder dry in case of further eurozone troubles.
This announcement was made in a tense week when relations between Greece and lenders took a turn for the worse, leading to fears that the Greeks will fail to repay part of its loans at the end of the month.
SNB figures released Thursday shown that Swiss banks are only exposed in Greece to the tune of CHF2 billion (compared with CHF547 billion of assets in Europe as a whole). Swiss exports to Greece totalled less than CHF900 million last year, making it a small market.
But the SNB would need some ammunition in reserve in the case of a Grexit, according to Laurent Bakhtiari, an analyst at online traders IG Switzerland.
“A Grexit will greatly impact the Swiss economy. It would provoke a flight to safety and, consequently, drastically increase the franc against the euro,” Bakhtiari wrote in a note on Thursday. “It would have been dangerous to decrease the rates now since the SNB would have played one of its last cards.”
“The situation with Greece is an uncomfortable one for Switzerland, and extremely difficult to predict,” Thomas Jordan told journalists on Thursday.
Jordan also pointed out that the steadily expanding United States economy and strengthening of the US dollar is adding a further complication. The growing divergence in the fortunes of the euro and the dollar make it yet harder for Switzerland to set its own monetary policy.
On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve hinted that it could raise interest rates later this year.
Swiss banking scene 2014
There were 283 operational banks in Switzerland, according to the SNB’s Banks in Switzerland 2014 report. This represents a decrease of eight banks from 2013.
The number of foreign controlled banks fell from 93 to 91 while private banks were reduced from 11 to 7.
The number of bank employees fell from 127,133 in 2013 to 125,289.
Of those 283 banks, 246 recorded a profit last year, totaling CHF14.2 billion against CHF11.9 billion in 2013. Some 29 banks made losses of CHF6.8 billion (CHF1.4 billion in 2013).
The combined balance sheet rose 6.8% to more than CHF3 trillion, boosted by a 3.6% increase in domestic mortgage loans (CHF900 billion) and a 6.3% rise in savings deposits (CHF639.5 billion).
Ponad 50% jej PKB jest w strefie Euro, dlatego od zawsze manipulowali kursem utrzymując go w niskim paśmie wahań około 1, 5 CHF za euro i tak zostali przy swojej walucie tylko na papierze, a teraz przez spóźnioną interwencję całkowicie usztywnili kurs 1, 20-1, 22 franka za Euro. 15 stycznia 2015 nagle go uwolnili, ale tylko na parę sekund.
15-01-2014 Główne indeksy w Szwajcarii
Citigroup stracił ponad 150 milionów dolarów po tym jak frank zyskał do euro
“In 2007, economists believed that the safe haven effect had disappeared because the euro was so strong,” he told swissinfo.ch. “A year later, safe havens came back into vogue again.”
“Since 2011, the Swiss economy has not done particularly better than Sweden or Norway, but the markets have a historical tradition of moving to the franc when major currencies get into trouble. The markets are not entirely rational.”
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